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By Adnan El-Ghoul
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, June 14, 2005
On the campaign
trail
BEIRUT: Michel Aoun's miraculous resurrection
and sound defeat of the Qornet Shehwan
Gathering during Sunday's round of elections
in
Northern Metn
and Jbeil-Kesrouan have surprisingly, and for
many shockingly, heralded the former general
as unchallenged leader of the Christian
community.
Aoun's adversaries were betting they could
achieve a relatively easy victory using
irrelevant catchphrases depicting a police
state, pro-Syrians, anti-Syrians, opposition
and loyalists; phrases that have lost their
appeal to ordinary citizens.
In addition to underestimating the 70-year-old
retired army commander, accusations leveled
against his Free Patriotic Movement failed to
sway the largest single bloc of voters in the
Christian heartland, leading to a defeat for
the opposition whose sweeping victory in
Baabda-Aley seemed almost irrelevant.
Zghorta MP Suleiman Franjieh, Aoun's latest
political ally, welcomed Monday's poll results
with great celebration; so much so that the
limelight was shifted from the somber marking
of the massacre that killed his entire family
in 1978.
With equal eagerness, and Franjieh in tow,
Aoun rushed to the North Monday to meet with
potential allies in
Tripoli - notably former Premier Omar Karami -
in an effort to secure the backing of Karami's
10,000-strong base of support for the list
Franjieh announced Sunday.
Karami greeted his "unexpected guests"
cordially, calling Aoun the "sheikh of all
nobles."
In this final round, the messenger in the
North will be the one to send a warning to
Hariri, particularly in light of the sudden
and timely return of former Deputy Premier
Issam Fares, which is a major boost to the
Aoun-Franjieh campaign against Hariri's
"steamroller."
The developments of the past 48 hours will
have an equally drastic effect on Hariri's
plans, and the worst is yet to come in the
final round in the North.
At this stage it remains unclear if the
opposition should even bother to try and save
the wounded, wandering Qornet Shehwan, or if
their only option is to get even closer to
Hizbullah.
However, Beirut MP-elect Gebran Tueni, a
representative of Qornet Shehwan, seems to
have jumped the gun earlier this week by
downplaying the alliance between Hariri,
Jumblatt, Hizbullah and Qornet Shehwan as a
"tactical, short-lived electoral alliance."
After his victory over the Christian
gathering, Aoun is now preparing to strike the
final blow to the Qornet Shehwan's hoped-for
role in the future of Lebanon.
Overall, the coming days look bleak for the
opposition - with or without the Qornet
component - as it must now cast aside its
dreams of securing a majority of 80 to 90 MPs,
and being able to dictate their choice for the
country's key posts.
As a result of the new realities, the
aspirations of Premier Najib Mikati to remain
in office and forming the next Cabinet for a
prolonged "transitional period" now seem, at
the least, less improbable.
One can't help but think Mikati will be
inclined to subtly support the Aoun-Franjieh
campaign. If he hopes to rebound from Sunday's
surprise 10th-round knock down, Hariri must
shake off the blow, regroup and bounce back
swinging. |
