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Friday, June 24, 2005
<Daily
Star
Based on the results of the parliamentary
polls, there are three likely scenarios for
selecting the next premier: outgoing Premier
Najib Mikati might be reappointed to the post
as a transitional man for a transitional
period; Beirut MP Saad Hariri, the man of the
moment, could assume the job; while,
alternatively, Hariri might instead support
one of his own men, possibly former Cabinet
member Fouad Siniora or Bahij Tabbarah.
In this last case, however, the government
might be accused of serving as a "shadow
cabinet" to the real authority which would be
governing from Qoreytem rather than the Serail.
This is why high-ranking official sources
believe it would be best for Hariri to assume
the job himself rather than invite such
inevitable criticism so early in his political
career.
With a majority of 72 parliamentary seats out
of 128, Hariri has emerged as the country's
most powerful politician.
He will therefore ask that he and his allies
obtain the majority of ministerial seats in
the next government.
With both a majority in Parliament and in the
government, Hariri could easily reign supreme
over Lebanese politics.
But taking into account the complexity of the
Lebanese system, he might decide to give
priority - at least on occasion - to
maintaining a sound balance of power between
the various confessions.
A major decision facing the young Hariri will
be the choice of the new Parliament's speaker.
Any decision that Hariri's bloc would support
in this context will be decisive.
The Shiite community, speaking through
Hizbullah and Amal, has already requested the
return to power of outgoing Speaker Nabih
Berri.
By offering Berri such a strong show of
support, the Shiite community has granted him
the legitimacy he needs for a potential
comeback, while depriving in advance any other
Shiite candidate of similar legitimacy.
If Hariri decides to defy the Shiite consensus
and proposes another candidate, he will
alienate the entire Shiite community and be
blamed for choosing a Shiite candidate rather
than a candidate for the Shiites.
Nevertheless, Hariri has many reasons to
hesitate over Berri.
Recent reports suggest French President
Jacques Chirac reportedly advised him during
their meeting at the Elysees a couple of days
ago not to vote for the outgoing speaker.
The French's objection of Berri stem mainly
with his strong affiliation with Syria, and
there is a belief among some that Chirac has
personal grievances against Berri for his lack
of support for late Premier Rafik Hariri
during his dispute with Syria over the
extension of President Emile Lahoud's term.
The
U.S. would rather have a weaker Shiite as
speaker during the coming phase, which is
expected to target the Shiites through the
U.S. project to disarm Hizbullah in accordance
with UN Resolution 1559.
Even Hariri is believed to have some
reservations about Berri.
Nevertheless, it seems Berri will be his
choice - mainly due to internal political
considerations and the influence of his Druze
ally Walid Jumblatt.
If this is to be the case, the deputy speaker
will have to be Hariri's ally, possibly MP
Farid Makari, Antoine Andraos or Atef
Majdalani.
But will Hariri take into account the desire
of the Christian community in this regard, or
will he use the majority he enjoys to reach
the ends he prefers, even if these do not
satisfy the majority of Christians?
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