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By Adnan El-Ghoul
Daily Star staff
Wednesday, June 01, 2005
On the campaign trail
BEIRUT: The opposition bloc grouping the
Future Movement, Qornet Shehwan Gathering and
Tripoli Gathering are close to announcing
their electoral list for Tripoli-Zghorta-Koura,
the North's second district.
However, the coalition led by Saad Hariri has yet
to decide on its Maronite candidate amid fears
from the Maronite community the coalition may
sacrifice MP Jean Obeid for a member of Qornet
Shehwan, in a repeat of the swap of Ghattas
Khoury for Solange Gemayel in Beirut.
Hariri's Tripoli list will include five Sunnis;
Samir Jisr, Mostafa Alloush, Mohammad Safadi,
Mohammad Abdel-Hamid Kabbara and Mosbah Ahdab;
one Allawite, Khoder Habib and one Orthodox,
Maurice Fadel, with the remaining Maronite to
be announced Wednesday.
The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) will probably
play a decisive role, particularly as former
Premier Omar Karami is still unsure if he will
run or not. The FPM's presence and Karami's
return would enhance the campaign and give the
parties a better chance against Hariri's
lists.
Hariri's opponents, particularly Aoun, saw in
Beirut's low turnout a weakness they can
exploit and a reason to be encouraged ahead of
the upcoming battle. Zghorta MP Suleiman
Franjieh was hoping to penetrate the
opposition's list with three to four at best,
but now Aoun's sources predict they can win
all the seats.
In Tripoli, former MP Abdul-Majeed Rafei declared
his candidacy and initiated, along with three
colleagues; Ahmad Karami, Saffouh Yakin and
Mohammad Nadim Jisr, contact with Sunni
leaders to nominate a fifth candidate in the
event Omar Karami maintains his boycott of the
elections.
Karami is under increasing pressure from family
circles and supporters to stand in the
election, believing conditions have improved
considerably in his favor since his
withdrawal.
Meanwhile, Franjieh is coordinating with
Tripoli figures and Aoun to pick potential
Christian candidates in Koura and Batroun,
where team Hariri has decided on MP Butros
Harb and another Maronite from Qornet Shehwan,
but has yet to make an official declaration.
The other Christian candidates in
Tripoli are being considered carefully to
accommodate Aoun and his political program,
which demands "injecting the political life
with fresh blood."
If Karami does not run, Aoun would have no
obstacle pushing for a Sunni FPM supporter and
such an accommodation would encourage Aoun to
go with the proposed northern alliance to the
end.
All indications are that the Aoun-Franjieh
alliance is a reality and only needs to
conclude minor details before public
announcement.
Team Hariri is confident it has assembled the best
possible coalition. However, Prime Minister
Najib Mikati's supporters will likely vote for
the anti-Hariri alliance as Mikati has his
eyes fixed on the premiership - a position
most are convinced will go to Hariri, who has
not missed an opportunity to express his
interest in the post.
Franjieh and Aoun, neither of whom objects to
Mikati's ambition, will exploit the situation
to its fullest.
Other less significant players have also started a
surge, eager to get their share of the prize,
namely various leftist groups, independent
figures and secular as well as democratic
forces.
These groups claim to have contributed to the
"independence movement" and believe they
deserve a place among the coalitions being
formed. They claim to be able to muster some
5,000 votes in the first district and 8,000 in
the second.
Zghorta MP Qaisar Mouawad remains to run as an
independent, without ruling out a change of
heart to join an alliance if a "good deal"
comes his way; a most unlikely scenario in a
no-holds-barred battle.
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